Warmest greetings of this spectacular fall season to all,
As we wind to near year end, the news and market environment in Marin continues to follow the same trajectory it has since July. We are faring far better than the national headlines, but we are not immune to impact.
The unprecedented meteoric rise in the cost of money and ensuing lending rates, coupled with the decline in investment portfolio values has slowed buyer demand and has put hesitancy in seller's minds to list their homes for sale. Existing listings are taking longer to sell and price reductions on remaining inventory have become more prevalent.
The good news - The Macro View:
- Here in November, after 4 severe .75% Fed interest rate hikes, home values still remain about 32% above where they were in January 2019. 10+% net annual increase in the last 3 years is GOOD!
- Marin 2022 value increase is flat for the year however, down -1% from January 2022, as of October 31; down 14% from the frenzied Spring highs.
- The second slide below reflects that in spite of 2022 severe economic headwinds, the average price of a home in Marin has more than doubled in 10 years from about $800,000 to $1,722,000 since January 2012, a notable robust achievement.
The tough news:
- The cost of a 30 year mortgage has risen 100% from approximately 3.5% to approximately 7% since June.
- The high end market over $3.0 million is the most affected with numbers of homes sold down 40% versus 3rd quarter last year. Also, high end homes over $4.0 are taking much longer to sell.
- Under $3.0 million, the number of homes sold in Marin are down about 30% year over year for the same period. A normally vibrant 3rd quarter produced far fewer new listings compared to 3rd quarter 2021.
2022 is not 2008. See the charts below. Homes are still selling, but at a slower pace. Values have not tanked. Homes sales are returning to a more balanced time frame of 2 months average on the market versus inventory being wiped out in less than 30 days this Spring.
The market awaits the coming spring season with open arms. The market needs new inventory.
If you are considering selling in 2023 or 2024, winter is the perfect time to plan. Please give us a call without obligation to help you determine what improvements will bring the highest return when the time is right. Superficial improvements matter. The Compass Concierge Program will help you pay for the work interest free.
Most importantly, we have much gratitude for all of you in our lives and wish you and your family a joyous and tasty Thanksgiving.
Our best wishes,
Michelle and Ronda
