Warm Greetings Dear Clients and Friends,
Sincere hopes all your holidays and January beginnings have been joyous!
Presented here is a capsulized picture of how the 2022 national economic challenges affected us here in Marin and the Bay Area at year end.
There are notable economic factors that influenced the statistics presented below:
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Inflation dropped for the second month in December to 7.1% from it's June peak at 9%.
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Prime mortgage rates are down to just UNDER 5% for the first time since June (Wells Fargo).
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Just released January Fed rate increase of only .25% (as a reflection of 4th Quarter lower inflation).
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Both 3rd & 4th Quarter 2022 had measured economic growth versus a decrease in GDP in Q1 & Q2.
Also noteworthy in January:
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German Chancellor Olaf Sholz at Davos predicted in January Germany will not face a recession and they are surviving Russia's EU severe oil and gas cutback with minimal impact.
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January also proved the most bullish month since 2019 for the stock market with strong indicators of recovery in several sectors.
We have continued to report for the last six months that the Bay Area has faired much better than the national headlines in the real estate sector.
And now specific to Marin County we can report real estate statistics that bear a very honorable mention:
SIMPLY THE BEST!
BETTER THAN ALL THE REST!
Of the 6 most expensive counties in the Bay Area: San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Alameda, Santa Cruz and Marin, Marin carried the highest median net year over year home value gain of 7.5% in 2022 vs 2021 (2% for Q4).
Why / how you ask? In our humble, but logical opinion: LOCATION MATTERS!
With the closest commutes to SF, natural beauty, low density, great schools, very high quality lifestyle options, and lower home prices than our two closest competing counties, SF and the Peninsula, it makes sense we ranked best overall.
Overall in the Bay Area, the charts below demonstrate that the dramatic mortgage rate increases (based on four .75% Fed rate increases in 5 months) that began to bring down median home values last May from their April peak, still yielded 2022 with 10 years of escalation in values since 2012 in tact (post the 2008-2011 recession)...and a little plus.
Here are the Net 2022 Results:
MARIN COUNTY:
The median home sales price as of 12/31/22 was $1,800,000; up 7.5% compared to 12/31/21; up 2% for Q4 2022 vs Q4 2021.
SAN MATEO COUNTY:
The median sales price as of 12/31 was $2,025,000; up 1% for the year, but down 9% Q4 2022 vs Q4 2021.
SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY:
The median sales price as of 12/31 was $1,784,000, down 1% for the year; down 13.5% Q4 2022 vs Q4 2021.
The charts reflect that Santa Cruz County faired the best in Q4 with a value uptick at 4.5% net, but notable is the county carries a median home value far lower at $1,305,000.
The biggest impact we suffered in 2022 is in sales volume. Far fewer homes sold as the year progressed. Both the dramatic reduction in new inventory and the cost of money were the major factors influencing far lower sales volume.
While we understand there are still unknown potential headwinds, many factors now support that if a recession occurs, it will be mild.
What we know is this: THE MARKET NEEDS INVENTORY!! There are many well qualified buyers in place, hungry to make offers. As noted below, 37% of all homes in Marin are still selling over asking price!
If you are thinking of selling your home this year or next, we strongly suggest you reach out to us under no obligation to let us help you prepare a realistic checklist of what you need to know for a successful sale. When you're ready, we have crews available to handle repairs and improvements at reasonable cost if/when needed.
The strength of our business as a team is in knowing what improvements and features of your home will make the biggest impact in a quick sale.
The Compass Concierge Program will advance you the money you need for these improvements at no cost until close of escrow and INTEREST FREE! Please ask us!
The hills are alive with more water in our sheds. We wish you only fields of green in all aspects of your lives in 2023!
Our warmest wishes,
Michelle and Ronda
